• A militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir has triggered a significant escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan.
• India has taken retaliatory measures, including suspending a key water treaty and downgrading diplomatic relations, prompting reciprocal actions from Pakistan.
• Concerns are mounting about potential military conflict, including the possible use of nuclear weapons, while international efforts for de-escalation are underway.

Tensions between India and Pakistan have dramatically increased following a militant attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 people. India has accused Pakistan of supporting the militants, a charge Pakistan denies. This incident has led to a series of retaliatory measures by both countries, including the suspension of trade and water treaties, expulsion of diplomats, and heightened military readiness. The international community is urging de-escalation to prevent further conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

• What: Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan following a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, including diplomatic downgrades, trade suspensions, and threats regarding water treaties.
• Who: Key individuals include Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif; diplomats Ajay Bisaria and Muhammad Khalid Jamali; and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Organizations involved include the Pakistani military, Indian government, and international bodies like the World Bank.
• When: The crisis began following the April 22, 2025 attack in Kashmir. Retaliatory measures and diplomatic exchanges have occurred in the days and weeks following the attack.
• Where: The events are centered around the Kashmir region, with diplomatic and economic repercussions affecting both India and Pakistan. International involvement extends to the US, China, and Gulf states.

The current crisis between India and Pakistan highlights the persistent instability in the region. The Pahalgam attack acted as a catalyst, triggering a swift escalation marked by diplomatic and economic retaliation. Pakistan's warning of potential nuclear retaliation underscores the gravity of the situation. The role of international actors, particularly the US, is crucial in de-escalating tensions. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, a long-standing agreement, signals a significant breakdown in bilateral relations. The situation is further complicated by internal political dynamics in both countries, making resolution challenging.

"We in Pakistan will use the full spectrum of power, both conventional and nuclear."

"Any attempt to usurp the water of the lower riparian, or to stop it, or to divert it would be an act of war against Pakistan and would be responded to with full force of power, including full spectrum of power"

"There is hardly any room for either any misadventure or miscalculation, so the only thing the two countries can best do is try to avoid an escalation. Otherwise, once it starts, where it ends up we don’t know."

"This time, I feel the problem India has run into is that they followed the old playbook, but the leader of the most important third party, the United States, didn’t show up to support India."

The crisis between India and Pakistan remains highly volatile. While neither side may desire a full-scale war, the risk of miscalculation is substantial. International diplomatic efforts are crucial to prevent further escalation. The long-term implications of suspending key agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty are significant, potentially destabilizing the region further. The situation requires careful monitoring and sustained engagement from the international community to foster dialogue and de-escalation.